The Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown has a twelve point lead over Kathleen Wynne and the governing Liberals, a new Mainstreet Research poll finds.
The poll was part of Mainstreet Research’s UltraPoll and surveyed 2375 residents of Ontario aged 18 and over between January 3rd and 4th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.01% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“Kathleen Wynne has had a good stretch in the latter half of 2017 and early 2018. This has translated to increasing support from our last reported numbers in Ontario,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
“However, the lead enjoyed by Patrick Brown and the PCs continues to be hard to overcome”.
The Progressive Conservatives lead in every region over the Liberals, except in the 416 area where the Liberals lead by nearly three points.
The PCs led by Brown enjoy leads of 11 points in the 905 belt, 8 points in Eastern Ontario, 21 points in South Central Ontario, 24 points in Southwestern Ontario and 25 points in the North.
“These regional numbers, combined with a competitive almost 37% support in the 416, continues to point to a possible PC majority government if the election were held today,” Added Maggi.
Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP are struggling to find oxygen in what is becoming a two way race. They do have some highlights in the North (25%) and South Central Ontario (22%) but are not above 20% in any other region or group.
“Unless Andrea Horwath can find a way get people’s attention, we will be looking at a two way battle between the Liberals and Conservatives in June,” concluded Maggi.
The Green Party under Mike Schreiner are enjoying double digit support among those under 35 years of age (11%) and in Eastern Ontario (10%) but time will tell if they are able to mobilize their support substantially to hold these numbers through to election day.
When asked which party leader they found more truthful, 37.6% of Ontarians said they found Patrick Brown the most truthful, while Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath were virtually tied at 26.2% and 25% respectively. 10.2% of Ontarians find Mike Schreiner most truthful among all party leaders.
Source: Mainstreet Research